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Business and the Law - 30-05-2024 - Michael Ilsemann - 0 comments
Don’t Panic! There’s a General Election! Don’t Panic!

Whilst I appreciate that very few of us will be hopping around like Corporal Jones, in mild panic after Rishi Sunak's announcement last week calling a general election, it can be an unfortunate consequence that such an announcement causes some degree of hesitation and prevarication.

It is inevitable that most of us contemplating big decisions will now wait until 5th July to "wait and see" what happens. The housing market is always the big one, as we all look in an anticipation as to whether a change of government would kickstart the economy or a re-elected government would steady the markets in a time of uncertainty.

As an aside, my own belief is that Sunak called the election at the wrong time. His greatest chance of re-election is to prove that he is turning around the economy. The longer he gives himself, the greater the chance of a recovery, the easier it is for him to sell the argument that only he can be trusted.

Interest rates are due to be cut in July and summer/autumn figures are expected to indicate economic growth. A July 4th election denies Sunak this ammunition, and an autumn election makes much more political sense.

I am sure that many of you know that I have some experience of public affairs and policy creation. For what it is worth, my own opinion is that Sunak was forced into this election by the parliamentary Conservative Party. If he wins a mandate, then that will quieten his critics. Otherwise, the timing makes such little sense.

Regular readers will remember my earlier comment that we are living an unprecedented era of uncertainty. Economic fragility amongst the developed west, the emerging economic power of the Global South, the rise of the popular right, the fragility of democracies against the rise of autonomy, global elections, wars in Europe and the Middle East and the global economic situation.

And now we have a general election to add to this. Brilliant...

I am now going to focus on the job market and business development. I suppose that it is somewhat inevitable to have "a wait and see" mentality and I would never advise any of you to charge recklessly ahead without first considering all your options.

But, do not despair, and whisper this very carefully, but you can all be confident. Bear with me...

Firstly, not much will change regardless of who forms the government on 5th July.

Due to the nature of our apolitical civil service, continuity within our political system is paramount. This isn't America, where Trump ripped apart Obama's legacy within days of his inauguration in January 2017 and looks likely to do the same to Biden's if he wins in November.

In the UK, 90% of what is enacted after an election would have been enacted in any event. I know we all have an image of UK politics being adversarial, of school boy chants of "Hear! Hear!" for half an hour a week at PMQs. The reality is that even in times of dominant majorities, the government and opposition work together, and laws are passed on a consensus basis.

And to be honest, the standard of UK politicians is so poor that frankly, it's difficult to have any confidence in whoever forms a government. It's depressing to think that our choice of prime minister this time is between a man who impersonates a wet sponge hanging limply outside Downing Street and a man whose main attraction is that he is not a Tory.

Could be worse, try deciding between Trump and Biden.

No doubt American readers will remind us that we gave the world May vs Corbyn. That was hardly Fury vs Joshua.

Secondly, although there is all this uncertainty in the world, it does bring opportunity. IP infringements, sanctions, commercial litigation, contracts in emerging markets, employment and immigration across borders and building developments as the government looks to kick start the economy.

And before any of you managing partners out there says that all of that is only relevant to the magic circle, remember what we said last week. What affects the larger international firms is reflected throughout smaller size firms.

There are opportunities out there for expansion and development, you just have to bd confident enough in your firm's and your own capabilities to grab them.

One final point. The reasons why you may be considering a new challenge, a new role or for expanding your practice will still be present after 5th July, and will be present well into 2025. Do not use the next 6 weeks to prevaricate, it will not achieve anything. Delay will be your enemy.

Instead, grab the initiative and make that difference to your career or firm that you have been promising yourself recently.

Oh, and one other thing. I promise you all that RSP will not be adding to the tedium of the 24-hour news coverage. Who actually watches it for an entire 6 weeks? Can we not bring back election campaigns which only lasted 3 weeks? At least they were over before they began and we could get on with our lives...

 

 

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